American Public Opinion Far Ahead of Official US Policy

By Fouad Moughrabi

What can we report to the new administration about the status of American public opinion on the Middle East and, in particular, on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? In the year of the intifadah, from early December until now, no less than eight major surveys of public opinion have been conducted by reputable polling agencies. No other international problem generates the kind of detailed and pertinent information about the shifts in mood and the changes of attitudes among the American people.

The attention given by various polling organizations and by the media denotes a sense of urgency, both in terms of American and Israeli problems. Unfortunately, policy appears to be at odds with the sentiments of the majority of the US public and fails to share the sense of urgency that the conflict in the Middle East is constantly signaling.

Numerous surveys conducted within the last year provide a clear idea of where American public opinion stands on Middle East issues, and therefore the limits of tolerance of the American public.

An American proposal predicated on a peaceful settlement of the conflict within an international conference that includes all the parties to the conflict, and that accepts a two-state solution with full guarantees for Israel's security, will find among the majority of the American public ready approval. Interestingly enough, while the mass public supports these options by healthy majorities, opinion leaders are even more firmly supportive. Nearly all surveys indicate that as levels of information and education increase, so does support for a settlement based on a two-state solution. Nor do opinion leaders see support for Palestinian statehood as necessarily anti-Israel.

Palestinian Statehood

A Gallup survey (Feb. 26-March 7, 1988) asked a nationwide sample of Americans if they "favor or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank." Thirty-five percent of the general public favored an independent state while 23 percent opposed it. However, 41 percent of the aware public favored Palestinian statehood, and 23 percent opposed it. Among college graduates, 50 percent supported a Palestinian state. Of high school graduates, 31 percent supported it.

A survey by the American Jewish Congress conducted by the Boston firm of Martilla and Kiley (April 1988) confirms these trends. This survey found that 43 percent of registered voters favored an independent state for the Palestinians, and 42 percent opposed it. Again, however, support was highest among the better educated. Of college-educated respondents, 51 percent favored it and only 34 percent opposed it. The American Jewish Congress study also found that 57 percent of well-informed and 55 percent of more affluent Americans tend to support an independent state for the Palestinians, with 36 percent and 34 percent respectively opposing it.

Such levels of support for Palestinian statehood were first noted by the 1982 Gallup survey for the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. In the following years a number of important surveys by Decision/Making/Information (1982), by the Survey Research Center (1985), by the Los Angeles Times (1988), and many others revealed solid and consistent majorities in favor of Palestinian statehood. Questions which used the word "homeland" instead of an "independent state" have in the past yielded even larger percentages. More recently, however, the American Jewish Congress study suggested that there is no statistically significant difference in responses using these two options. Both formulations elicit the same positive response.

A large majority of respondents (63 percent) in an April 1988 Los Angeles Times survey favored an international peace conference which would include all parties to the conflict. Similarly, 52 percent agreed that "in order to bring peace to the Middle East, we (the US) should be willing to talk to all parties involved in the conflict, including the PLO." The response to that question was important because its wording offered respondents the opportunity to comment on the official Israeli and American position by stating: "Some people say that the United States ought not to negotiate with the Palestine Liberation Organization—the PLO—because they are terrorists and they refuse to recognize the right of Israel to exist." Only 34 percent of respondents thought the US should not negotiate with the PLO. An earlier Los Angeles Times survey of June 3, 1987, asked respondents exactly the same question about PLO participation. In 1987, 50 percent thought that the US should talk to the PLO, compared to the 52 percent who thought so 10 months later.

There is among the American public a recognition that the Palestinians have a legitimate grievance: that they deserve a homeland of their own and that the PLO should be involved in the process of negotiations.

A Gallup survey of March 1988 offered respondents the same choice, worded as follows: "As you may know, the United States does not currently deal directly with the PLO. Do you favor or oppose direct talks between the US and the PLO as a way to help resolve the conflict over Gaza and the West Bank?" Fifty-three percent were in favor and only 26 percent opposed. An even higher 58 percent were in favor of direct talks between Israel and the PLO. Again, as the level of awareness and education increased, so did the positive answers. Sixty percent of college graduates tended to favor direct talks between the US and the PLO and 72 percent of college graduates favored direct talks between Israel and the PLO.

Large majorities of respondents favor US participation in the peace process. The American Jewish Congress study revealed that 79 percent of Americans would like the US to initiate an international peace conference; 70 percent think the US should mediate between the Israelis and the Arabs but not offer specific solutions; 63 percent think the US should work with the Soviet Union to propose solutions that both superpowers would pledge to enforce; and 62 percent think the US should mediate the conflict and offer specific solutions. The public is about evenly split on the question of the use of economic and diplomatic sanctions against Israel and the Arab states in order to get them to accept a settlement, with 48 percent in favor and 49 percent opposed.

There is among the American public a recognition that the Palestinians have a legitimate grievance; that they deserve a homeland of their own in the form of an independent state in the West Bank and Gaza, provided Israeli security is guaranteed; and that the PLO should be involved in the process of peace negotiations. Any proposal incorporating these crucial points will be endorsed by the public, and even more strongly by opinion leaders.

Positive opinions on these matters have by now become fairly stable and consistent. Opposition to these points, by contrast, is limited to approximately 25 percent of the public, segments of which are vocal and highly visible. What is particularly significant is that the percentage of positive answers concerning Palestinian statehood and direct US and Israeli talks with the PLO are the highest among better-educated and more affluent Americans, whose opinions generally set the pace for other segments of society. This augers particularly well for any administration contemplating official government positions more in line with those supported by American public opinion.

Fouad Moughrabi, Professor of Political Science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, is co-author of Public Opinion and the Palestine Question.