Arabia Imperilled: The Security Imperatives of the Arab Gulf States

By Mazher A Hameed, Washington, DC: Middle East Assessments Group, 1986. 189 pages, $14.95.

Reviewed by John Gatch

In his 1980 State of the Union address, President Carter outlined America's long-term commitment to the security of the countries of the Arabian Gulf:

"...an attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force."

Mazher A. Hameed has addressed these concerns directly in his new book, Arabia Imperilled: The Security Imperatives of the Arabian Gulf States.

This book focuses on the strategic importance of the Gulf countries as well as the threat posed to them by the Iraq-Iran war. Mazher Hameed is a Saudi Arabian educated in England and the United States. Since 1982 he has been Executive Director of the Washington-based Middle East Assessments Group. Previously he was Director of the Oil Field Security Studies Program at the Georgetown University Center for Strategic and International Studies. In addition, Hameed has lectured on regional security issues at the Middle East Institute, the National Defense University, the Foreign Service Institute, and the American University.

In short, the author is well-qualified to analyze America's long-range security and energy interests in the Gulf region. In his introduction to the book, former Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger notes that:

"by the early 1990s, at the latest, the United States and the entire industrial world will have been drawn back to dependency upon the oil reserves of the Persian Gulf region. Since this is a few years away at best, it would seem appropriate for us to shed the complacence and the indifference regarding developments in the Persian Gulf, and to focus now on the forces at work in that region."

Schlesinger's concern is well-founded, and Arabia Imperilled contains a wealth of political, social, and military information about the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which was formed in 1981 and which includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Hameed discusses the roles and interests of regional and world powers succinctly and thoroughly, and the book is a fine primer on the countries of the Gulf and the tensions confronting the region.

The meat of the book lies in its two middle chapters: (1) The Threat Profile in the Gulf; and (2) Security Resources of the Gulf Countries.

The threats range from a worst-case scenario of a Soviet invasion of the area from Afghanistan to a more plausible description of military contingencies arising from the Iraq-Iran war. Hameed also outlines possible threats to the region from Israel, more or less on a case-by-case basis, a la the strike on the Iraqi nuclear reactor, and from Syria. The author also notes that the newness of most of the Gulf states makes for a fragility of government that could lead to subversion from outside or within. (Hameed excludes Saudi Arabia from this category and characterizes the kingdom's government as having a "level of legitimacy" exceeding almost every other country in the region.)

Unfortunately, the security resources of the region are inevitably identified with the GCC. Of the GCC, Mr. Hameed says:

"(It) is a new phenomenon, and security planning resources in the Gulf naturally reflect the pre-GCC condition: equipment is not inter-operable, and coordination of defense planning is only beginning.. Key to the viability of the GCC as a security system is Saudi Arabia, with the largest and most capable armed forces and the greatest strategic depth of any of the GCC states."

It is clear that the GCC is a long way from being even minimally effective as a deterrent force in the area. Mr. Hameed has an answer to this problem: the United States must follow a policy of enhancing the GCC's ability to deter threats. He warns, however, that if such a policy is to be effective, it must be designed and implemented in a way that does not inadvertently undermine the Gulf countries' political systems in general and their internal structures in particular. On the practical side, U.S. assistance in strengthening the GCC's air force capabilities is of pressing importance. Obviously a vast effort has to be made by all concerned. This is not a reassuring book.

What comes through clearly is the importance of a viable GCC—both to the countries themselves and to the United States.

The book ends with a plea for reason: "One of the most effective ways of protecting US interests in the region lies in ensuring that there is enough movement towards a just and lasting peace between the Arab states and Israel. This will avert the possibility that years of effort in the Gulf might be destroyed by the political and military consequences of the Arab-Israeli conflict."

Arabia Imperilled should be a valuable addition to the library of any serious student of Middle Eastern affairs.

John Gatch is a retired Foreign Service Officer who served in several Gulf posts during his career.