Election Year Politics

By Dennis J. Wamsted

Although Congress was out of session for much of January, the issues that will dominate the second session of the 99th Congress which began officially on January 21 have already become clear. First, and perhaps most important, 1986 is an election year, which means that many, if not all, of the actions taken or, in some cases, not taken by Congress this year will be geared toward November. This will be particularly true in the Senate, where the Republicans currently control the chamber by a slim 53-47 margin. This majority, however, will be challenged severely this fall as 21 of the 33 Senators up for reelection in 1986 are Republicans.

With these concerns in mind, it is not surprising that Senate Republican leader Robert Dole (R-KS) has singled out three domestic issues as the major ones facing the Senate this year namely, the effort to construct a budget that meets the provisions of the recently adopted Gramm Rudman balanced budget law, a tax reform bill and some type of trade legislation. The flip side of these priorities, of course, is that the Senate, and Congress in general, is much less likely to be interested in foreign affairs. Time spent on foreign affairs does not win many votes. To the extent that Congress is involved in Middle Eastern issues, it is likely to be even more pro-Israel than is generally the case. Money spent on Israel does win votes.

Cranston Leads Opposition to New Saudi Arms Package

The efforts already underway in both the House and Senate to further delay, if not reject outright, the Administration's planned sales of advanced U.S. weaponry to Jordan and Saudi Arabia are an important example of this pro-Israel election year theme. Senator Alan Cranston (D-CA), a key member of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs, in January called on the Reagan Administration to abandon plans to sell an additional package of advanced weaponry to Saudi Arabia. [Although reports vary, many observers believe the package would total about one billion dollars and include Sidewinder air to air missiles, Stinger antiaircraft missiles and launchers, Blackhawk helicopters, Harpoon missiles and advanced electronic components to upgrade Saudi Arabia's U.S. built jet fighters.]

Cranston said it would be "unwise and imprudent for our government to sell advanced weapons to a nation that is actively giving aid and comfort to Libya." In addition, Cranston charged the Saudis with "frustrating" efforts by King Hussein to move towards peace talks with Israel, "bankrolling" Syria and the PLO, and "leading" the boycott against American firms which trade with Israel.

Cranston has consistently opposed any U.S. arms sales to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He organized the effort early in 1985 that convinced the Administration to "freeze" all Mideast arms sales pending a review of the various countries' needs. Later in the same year, Cranston helped mobilize 58 Senators to oppose any sale to Saudi Arabia leading the Administration to postpone the sale once again. The Saudis reacted by placing a $4.5 billion military aircraft order with British manufacturers.

Should the Administration submit a sale proposal to Congress this spring, Cranston undoubtedly would again serve as a rallying point for the sale's opponents this time playing upon Congress' and the U.S. public's distaste for Qaddafi by emphasizing purported Saudi sympathy with Libya as a reason for canceling the sale.

In the House of Representatives a bi-partisan group of Congressmen informed President Reagan in January that it would oppose plans to sell any additional U.S. weaponry to Saudi Arabia. Their letter, initiated by Representative Mel Levine (D CA), a Jewish member of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe and the Middle East, and signed by 11 other Representatives, argued that previous sales to Saudi Arabia in particular the 1981 sale of Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) planes "have been justified on the grounds that they would induce it (Saudi Arabia) to further the peace process." Since, they contended, "there is no evidence that the Saudis have in fact fostered the peace process," no further sales to the Kingdom are justified. The letter added that Saudi Arabia "is still in a state of war with Israel, refuses to recognize Israel's right to exist and continues to support the Arab boycott of Israel."

The most damaging comments, however, came from Senate Majority Leader Dole the leader of the President's party in the chamber where either the Jordan or the Saudi sale would ultimately have to be approved. Dole told United Press International "there is no way (that the sale to Jordan will be approved) unless you get some evidence that something is happening." Dole said he could not "see much difference" between the sales to Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and that approval for either sale in the current Congressional climate "is not in the cards."

With the next move up to the Reagan Administration, State and Defense Department sources say that a decision to proceed with the sales has not yet been made. In contrast to last fall's optimism, these sources concede that, since the odds against them are daunting, the Administration may even withdraw the Jordan proposal and continue to postpone proposing the Saudi sale effectively killing both sales at least until 1987 and perhaps for good.

New Moves to Put Iraq Back on "Terrorist" List

A second example of election year pro Israel politics is the pledge by at least two Representatives to work to put Iraq back on the list of countries supporting terrorism, thereby halting all U.S. sales of military equipment and reducing the civilian equipment that could be sold to that Gulf country. The Administration thwarted a similar effort in early 1985, after assurances from Secretary of State Shultz and Defense Department officials that the Iraqi government no longer aided terrorists.

In the wake of the early October hijacking of the Italian cruise ship Achille Lauro, and reports that the alleged mastermind of that operation, Mohammad Abbas, has been seen in Iraq, those in favor of reinstating Iraq on the "terrorist" list have seized the initiative. Representative Howard Berman (D CA), a Jewish member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee who led last year's effort, said recently: "I intend to introduce legislation (to place Iraq back on the list when Congress reconvenes) if Abbas is not out of there (Iraq) or the Administration has not acted." Representative Sam Wyden (D OR), a Jewish member of Congress who has had little previous involvement in foreign affairs but who spent part of the Congressional recess in Israel, has also called on the Administration to put Iraq back on the "terrorist" list. Administration sources say they have no plans to reinstate Iraq on the list, but it remains unclear whether the State and Defense departments will go all out, as they did in 1985, to convince Congress not to act unilaterally.

Israeli Aid Shielded from Gramm Rudman Budget Cuts

Israel usually does very well during election years in terms of military and economic aid from the United States. Ironically, Congress has already beaten the rush by virtue of its mandate that all of Israel's economic aid for the current fiscal year be handed over at the beginning of the U.S. fiscal year rather than be dispensed throughout the year, as is the case with other recipient nations. As a result of this largesse, which costs the U.S. Treasury at least $50 million in foregone interest, Israel's economic aid package will not be subject to the first round of budget cuts mandated by Gramm Rudman. The other aid recipients will have their funds slashed by a uniform 4.3 percent. Furthermore, Administration sources say the U.S. will not ask the Israeli government to repay the amount That would have been cut from its allocation some $51 million but rather will extract this sum from the already reduced amounts alloted to other nations.

Despite ongoing efforts to reduce the huge federal budget deficit, U.S. Government sources indicated in January that the Reagan Administration plans to increase its request for military aid to Israel for the coming fiscal year (FY 1987) by $90 million raising Israel's total of regular military and economic aid to $3.09 billion. A number of sources noted that the Administration, faced with a severe budget crunch, had decided to request this additional aid at the outset in an effort to prevent Israel's Congressional supporters from increasing aid to Israel even more during the foreign aid authorization and appropriations process this spring. Since Members of Congress are not bound by the Administration's proposal and are eager to garner both Jewish votes and PAC contributions in an election year, however, it would not be surprising if Congress simply used the Administration increase as a new base from which to increase aid to Israel still further during the coming months.

Dennis J. Wamsted, of Washington, D.C., has lived and studied in the Middle East and writes frequently on it.