A Look Ahead at Congress

By Allan Kellum

On January 3, the new 99th Congress officially convened. Looking ahead to the 1985 legislative agenda, it is virtually certain Congress will be asked by the Reagan Administration to approve two proposals that are expected to generate much controversy: The sale of U.S. arms to one or more Arab countries, and a drastically increased aid package to Israel.

Soon after the nation's lawmakers have sorted themselves into committees, the various foreign aid panels will learn the President's country-by-country aid requests and begin to shape the annual foreign aid bill. Israel's worsened economic situation has prompted a flurry of discussion about ways of helping her past the crisis. While previous increases generally have been on the order of a few hundred million dollars, this, one, as contemplated by the Reagan Administration, is to be a quantum leap of nearly two billion dollars. In a year when U.S. lawmakers are trying to trim the U.S. budget by some $50 billion, the foreign aid panels are likely to spend considerably more time deciding the amount, form and the conditions for the Israeli aid than might otherwise be the case.

This may be the year that the normal congressional procedures for approving the foreign aid program again are followed. For the last four years Congress has failed to approve separate legislation to appropriate the foreign aid funds. As a result, the bill has been lumped together with many other budget measures in a "continuing resolution" and approved, often with little or no debate. Last year the House passed its version of a separate bill, but the Senate failed to act. Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN), the new Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, may see to it that the Senate does its part in 1985. Lugar's press spokesman told this correspondent that "Lugar is committed to get a (separate) foreign aid bill this year." If his colleagues on the House side are equally determined and the normal procedures are followed, this would decrease the authority that the appropriations committees have come to enjoy in recent years when the continuing resolutions have been required.

If aid to Israel is increased, will Egypt's aid grow in tandem? The answer to this question is not clear. Since the Camp David Accords were signed in 1978, Egypt's aid has been roughly equivalent to Israel's. However, some congressmen, particularly members of the 'House Mideast panel, threatened last year to reduce Egypt's share as a show of displeasure with what they considered to be Egypt's "cold peace" with Israel. As yet, it is unclear how the parity and displeasure factors will interact to shape Egypt's FY 1986 aid figure.

Expectations of a Political Firefight

Also sure to arise in 1985 are some controversial sales of sophisticated arms to either Jordan or Saudi Arabia, or to both. Unlike the formation of the aid bills, the timing and make-up of these sales are the prerogative of the Executive Branch. When the Administration finally does announce them, a political firefight of the first magnitude will be ignited on Capitol Hill.

In 1985, Congress will likely get another look at the issue of a Free Trade Area (FTA) for Israel, which would allow Israel to export its goods and services to the U.S. duty-free. Last year Congress authorized the Administration to negotiate such in agreement with Israel, and the negotiations that were begun are now "in their final phase," according to the State Department. With completion of an FTA agreement, Congress is likely to approve it with little or no dissent, unless the Administration strayed badly from the negotiating guidelines insisted upon by some congressmen.

Will the Jerusalem bill, calling for the transfer of the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, resurface in the 99th Congress? The key to answering that question lies with the principal sponsors of last year's bill, namely Senator Patrick Moynihan (D-NY) and Representatives Tom Lantos (D-CA) and Benjamin Gilman (R-NY). While Lantos's office indicated that decisions about the bill were riot yet finalized, a spokesman for Representative Gilman stated categorically that "he will be bringing it up again." This year, though, the common wisdom is that both the American Israel Public Affairs Committee—the major pro-Israel lobby—and the Israeli embassy will urge the congressional sponsors of the Jerusalem bill not to pursue that issue, at least not until the large aid increases are firmly nailed down and any arms sales have been effectively opposed. If the Jerusalem bill, in whatever form, does surface and come to a vote, there is little doubt but that it would pass overwhelmingly.

Allan Kellum is editor of the Mideast Observer. A sample copy of his publication may be obtained by writing Mideast Observer, P.O. Box 2397, Washington, D.C. 20013.