As the World Awaits War, Pakistan Remains in a State of Confusion

By M.M. Ali

These days Pakistan, an old U.S. ally and now a coalition partner in the war against international terrorism, finds itself in a strange predicament. Islamabad’s primary duty, of course, is to protect the safety and the security of its citizens.In the present context of world affairs, however, this primary function is not terribly well defined—not only in Pakistan, but in many of the other countries economically dependent on today’s sole superpower. American economic strength, its technological and military power, is being felt across the globe, and it is very palpable in Pakistan.

Secondly, given its predominantly Muslim population, Pakistan’s loyalties also are to Islam, and by extension to what is described as the Muslim bloc of nations. Here again, Islamabad finds itself caught up between very difficultcircumstances, particularly following the Sept. 11 disaster. Its neighbor Afghanistan, never one to provide comfort, today subjects the government of President Pervez Musharraf to serious hardship. Nor does India—a country five times the size of Pakistan, with ambitions of being recognized as a major world power—ever cease adding to its neighbor’s woes.

Against the background of a looming U.S.-led war on Iraq—with Secretary of State Colin Powell making his case before the U.N. Security Council, and France, Russia and Germany apparently unconvinced by the “evidence”— Security Council member Pakistan performed yet another balancing act, joining many others in asking that any action be taken through the Security Council.

In early February, President Musharraf travelled to Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin in an attempt to mend fences between the two countries. Although Pakistan continues to seek a mediator to resolve the Kashmir dispute, Putin made it clear that Moscow will do nothing to jeopardize its longstanding ties with India.

Domestic Concerns

Many politically unsophisticated Pakistanis do not hesitate to speak their mind. Tired of their country’s historic mismanagement, today they are concerned only with bread-and-butter issues.

Not only are Pakistanis’ loyalties seriously split, but the sovereignty of the state is questioned at every turn. The northern tribal area bordering Afghanistan is only “administered,” not fully controlled, by Islamabad, with the Baluchistan tribal chiefs in open defiance of state authority. A recent feud between the Bughti and the Mazari tribes, in fact, culminated in the blowing up of the gas pipeline that supplies Punjab province, and the government was reduced to negotiating with the tribes. (The gas pipeline being planned to run from the oil-rich fields of Central Asia via Afghanistan to India and the warm waters of the Indian Ocean, it is worth noting, traverses the tribal areas of Baluchistan.)

To travel just three to five miles from any city in Pakistan is to go back in time at least 50 years.

While this near-anarchy is a legacy of the British Empire, which ruled the subcontinent for over 150 years and left much unfinished business, the principal failing has been that of Pakistan’s successive governments. Because they have left the country’s tribal state of affairs intact over a half-century of independence, today the tribal chiefs wield more authority in northern Pakistan than does the state, and national assets are blown up on a whim.

As is often sarcastically pointed out, Islamabad, enclosed by the Margala Hills, lies 10 miles from Pakistan. The moresignificant truth, however, is that thereare two Pakistans which exist side by side: one, the better tended military neighborhoods (cantonments) and communities to be found in every town and city, and the other, larger areas of dilapidated neighborhoods and deteriorating infrastructure. Nor is the difference between Pakistan’s urban and rural areas only one of space. To travel just three to five miles from any city is to go back in time at least 50 years—and it is in the countryside where most Pakistanis live. Deprived of the basic amenities of life, these people merely exist from day to day, without ambition or hope. Their situation is repeated throughout South Asia and the rest of the developing world.

If meaningful peace is tobe achieved, it is this depressing environment in which millions of people live that should interest the developed world and the managers of its international banks and agencies. Unless their assistance results in tangible change, calls for democracy in an illiterate and poverty-stricken world only will perpetuate the further exploitation of the innocent.

External Situation

Only a very thin line divides Pakistan’s internal affairs from its external relations, resulting in a restriction of options in both spheres. Loaded with a heavy external debt, Islamabad must tailor its domestic policy to its lenders’ demands. This makes its extremely expensive nuclear program both an internal and an external necessity. Pakistan’s dignity in the comity of nations today is due largely to its nuclear capability. Remove that and few countries would continue to court it. The irony is that its very nuclear strength makes it vulnerable, and Pakistanis fear that after Iraq “it is Iran and Pakistan’s turn.”

Like all countries, Pakistan entertains some natural expectations of its friends and allies. Because it especially looks up to the United States, it is no wonder that Islamabad is very disappointed to see Pakistan’s name included on the short list of countries whose nationals are required to register with the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service. Pakistanis are angered at recent incidents of the detention and deportation ofeven minor visa violators.

It is relations with India, however, that have always governed Pakistan’s external affairs—and New Delhi seems to return the compliment. Although Pakistan has expressed its desire to meet with India and discuss the Kashmir conflict, New Delhi has shied away, at least for the time being. Washington, moreover, has dropped discreet hints in recent monthsthat it would like to see Kashmir’s current Line of Control become a permanent border.

Recent reports of French willingness to supply India with the latest Mirage aircraft and the possibility that the U.S. may sell F-16s to New Delhi has cast a chill over Pakistan.It is becoming ever more apparent that the country will have to learn to live in peace with its much larger neighbor, and that India must act like a responsible power in the subcontinent and not bully the smaller states in the region. With both countries having nuclear capability, war between India and Pakistan is not—and cannot be—an option.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a Washington, DC-based specialist on South Asia and a consultant with the United Nations Development Program. He is currently visiting the subcontinent.