2007 Ends With Bhutto Assassination, Re-election of BJP’s Narendra Modi

By M.M. Ali


	Benazir Bhutto’s widower, Asif Ali Zardari (l), and son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, at a Dec. 30 press conference held at the Bhutto ancestral home in Naudero, Pakistan. (AFP photo/AAmir Qureshi).

ON THE COVER of its Jan. 5-11 issue, London’s conservative weekly magazine The Economist described Pakistan as “The world’s most dangerous place.” The Dec. 27 assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the two-time former prime minister and self-appointed lifetime chairman of the Pakistan’s People Party (PPP), was followed by rioting throughout the country, especially in Bhutto’s home province of Sindh, where over 50 people were killed and many public and private properties were destroyed.

With army and coast guards posted everywhere, however, and Jan. 8 elections postponed to Feb. 18, life appeared to be returning to normal. However, it is uncertain if this calm will hold during the rescheduled elections—especially since the month of February coincides with the Islamic month of Moharrum, a month of mourning for Shi’i Muslims, when tensions between Sunni and Shi’i increase each year.

After nearly eight years of self-imposed exile in Dubai, where she fled to avoid charges of corruption and misuse of state funds, Bhutto had returned to Pakistan on Oct. 18—a return reportedly brokered by the United States, which sought to put a “civilian face” on the government of then-Gen. Pervez Musharraf. Her huge welcome procession to her home in Karachi was marred by two bomb blasts in which more than 140 people were killed. She herself narrowly escaped death.

Undeterred, Bhutto addressed large political rallies in Sindh, and also received warm receptions in Baluchistan, the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Punjab. It was evident that she was gaining political ground across the country. Her disregard of administration warnings to stay away from crowds proved fatal, however, when she was shot while waving to supporters from the sun roof of her bullet-proof vehicle following her speech at the Liaqat Bagh ground in Rawalpindi, a garrison town just 10 miles from Islamabad.

There are several theories about who is behind Bhutto’s assassination, with the government saying that it sees the hand of al-Qaeda. Others point to Musharraf himself, or the notorious Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI). Britain’s Scotland Yard has even been asked to assist in the investigations. Whatever may be the findings, Bhutto’s death is a serious blow to the prospect of democracy in Pakistan.

Another former prime minister who has returned home from exile is Nawaz Sharif. It will be recalled that in 2000 Sharif, who is from Punjab province (where Bhutto was killed), was rescued by Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd from a sentence of life imprisonment on charges of “hijacking” the plane of then army chief-of-staff Musharraf. Sharif had been in negotiations with Bhutto while both were living abroad and had joined hands with her after returning to Pakistan last November. Because Sharif does not have the charisma and political standing of Bhutto, however, the most he can do is use his own Muslim League (N) party to take away votes from Musharraf’s ruling Muslim League (Q) party, especially in Punjab.

The issue of who will succeed Bhutto as leader of the PPP is based on a reportedly handwritten will Bhutto left behind in which, according to the Pakistani media, Bhutto named her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, as the next party president. Zardari in turn designated their 19-year-old son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, as party leader upon completion of his education at Oxford, where he is now enrolled. Until then the elder Zardari—whose reputation is very poor in Pakistan, where he is known as “Mr. Ten Percent,” after his perceived kickbacks from government contracts when his wife was prime minister—will serve as caretaker.

The British Foreign Office reportedly has contacted Bilawal, and political pundits speculate that London may be asking Bilawal to take time off from his studies, go home and involve himself in politics. This scenario is not as farfetched as it may sound. Bilawal might return temporarily to Pakistan to participate in electioneering, or issue statements from London to influence the voting. On Jan. 7 he called for a U.N. investigation into the murder of his mother.

Meanwhile Musharraf’s successor as army commander-in-chief, Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, who is considered a good friend of the West, is making his presence known. He has announced that 2008 will be known as “the year of the soldier,” sent a wreath to be placed on Bhutto’s grave on his behalf, and convened a meeting of the Corps Commanders (without the retired Musharraf) to discuss Pakistan’s political and law-and-order situation.

Political analysts wonder if the country’s postponed elections can be held in peace. Should the law-and-order situation break down once again, Kiyani may step in and take charge—marking the end of the Musharraf regime.

Adding to the government’s troubles, Taliban and al-Qaeda militias reportedly have now moved into Pakistan’s Swat valley, where they are now being fought by the same Pakistani troops which had engaged them in the Waziristan area bordering Afghanistan. This is a matter of serious concern not only to Islamabad, but to Washington as well. According to a report in the Jan. 6 New York Times, “President Bush’s senior national security advisers are debating whether to expand the authority of the Central Intelligence Agency and the military to conduct far more aggressive covert operations in the tribal areas of Pakistan.” Pakistan’s Foreign Office immediately issued a statement that it will not allow any country to intrude into its sovereign territory.

BJP’s Narendra Modi Re-Elected in Gujarat, India

Defying the opposition of the ruling Congress party in Delhi and without the support of his own Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) high command, Narendra Modi, 57, was re-elected in December to a third five-year term as chief minister in Gujarat, India. Modi is known to have allowed the carnage of the Muslims in Gujarat in 2002, when more than 1,000 Muslim Indians were killed in rioting which followed an attack on a train in which many Hindus were killed. Charges of genocide resulting from Modi’s failure as chief minister to stop the killings are still pending against him in India’s Supreme Court.

In a last-minute attempt to block Modi’s bid to remain in office, the BJP high command appointed as party chief L.K. Advani, who led the 1992 demolition of the Babri Masjid (mosque). It is disconcerting to note that the Hindu-nationalist and anti-minority BJP, which ruled India in the 1990s, again appears to be on the rise. The burning down of several churches during the Christmas season in the BJP-ruled state of Orissa is another example of Indian minorities in peril.

Next year’s national elections will determine whether India’s secular forces, led by the ruling Congress party, are able to stem the rising tide of the BJP.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a specialist on South Asia based in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.